Abstract
Scientific consensus states that the consumption of fossil fuels is responsible for anthropogenic increase in the CO2 concentration in the world over its industrial history. The increase in CO2 concentration has caused the earth’s temperature to rise by about 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times. The COP (conference of Parties) meeting held in France in 2015 pledged that earth’s temperature should not exceed more than 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial average. Based on the current climate models and their estimations, achieving this target requires us to stop emitting CO2 by 2050 and perhaps reducing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere by injecting some of the excess CO2 in the ground. Can this goal be achieved? This presentation discusses feasibility of achieving this goal by considering the history of fossil fuel consumption and making some predictions about the future of consumption.
One theory about reducing fossil fuel consumption assumes that fossil fuels are limited in supply and eventually we will run out of it. This is called “Peak Oil theory.” We demonstrate that Peak Oil theory is not consistent with current oil and gas production and remaining reserves and we will have sufficient amount of fossil fuels in foreseeable future. Another theory states that GDP can be de-coupled from fossil fuels consumption so that the world can continue to be prosperous without the use of fossil fuels. We show the comparison of developed vs developing countries and demonstrate that this is not feasible in the near term. The third theory states that old technology can be replaced by new technology (“Replacement theory”) and when better energy sources are developed, old energy sources will be replaced. We examine various energy sources and demonstrate that energy changes have always been “additive” rather than “substitutive” in the past. Therefore, adding new energy sources do not necessarily replace old energy sources. At the end, we project energy usage in the future and make some predictions about fossil fuel consumption in the future.
Short Bio
Mohan Kelkar is Chairman and Professor of Petroleum Engineering at McDougall School of Petroleum Engineering at the University of Tulsa. He has published more than 70 refereed papers and has made over 250 technical presentations. He is author of three books including “Applied Geostatistics for Reservoir Characterization,” “Natural Gas Production Engineering,” and “Petroleum Economics and Property Evaluation.” He is recipient of many SPE awards including, Distinguished Member, Distinguished Service Award, International Outstanding Faculty Member Award, Ferguson Certificate for Outstanding Research Paper Award, and “Honorary Member Award. He served on SPE Board of Directors from 2010-2013.